Statebuilding: “Novorossiya” a reality?

While the Ukrainian government insists that the separatist controlled areas in Eastern Ukraine remain a part of Ukraine, real life facts seem to show that some sort of independence of the separatist areas appears to be inevitable. “Novorossiya” as some sort of (independent or more likely dependent on Russia) state becomes reality that has to be faced.
The months of war, propaganda and influencing and the efforts of building up state-like structures in the separatist controlled areas already have left a significant trace in the minds and hearts of the people in Eastern Ukraine. Kiev’s move to blockade the East economically and to cut social welfare including pensions to the Eastern areas have strengthened the separatist effect in Eastern Ukraine. Those still in favor of an united Ukraine are intimidated or have already left the Eastern regions. More and more media reports seem to suggest that people in the East have arranged with the new system and that many in the East allegedly have broke with the idea of a unified Ukraine under a central government in Kiev. Every move that Kiev does can potentially be used as propaganda against Kiev. Every shelling of a building can be interpreted into the shelling of a residential building. Actual hits of residential buildings by Ukrainian artillery and actual victims are discouraging even sceptical minds of following Kiev.
At the same time organizational and administrative structures in the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic are constantly improving and gaining a boost through the absence of administration controlled by Kiev thus being the only state-like structure in Eastern Ukraine. The new structures solidify with every day the situation stays as it is. For the separatists it can only get better.
In the light of today’s peace talks in Minsk the question rather can’t be whether the separatist controlled areas will gain some sort of autonomy or not. They already have it and it seems unlikely that this is going to change in the near future. Clearly these areas are orientating towards Russia which on the other hand might lead or already has lead to independence from Kiev to dependence from Moscow. The question that is not asked in Minsk is, what prize Russia is ready to pay for that.
“Novorossiya” in what exact form ever appears to be and become more a concrete reality that Kiev and the rest of the world will have to deal with.

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